One runway figure hides the question worth asking. Waterline splits revenue three ways and shows you what each layer is holding up.
| Layer | Means |
|---|---|
| Committed | Signed, awarded, in the bank or contractually certain. |
| Expected | Likely — a renewal you have every reason to believe in. |
| Speculative | Applied for, pitched, hoped for. |
Toggle them independently. If your runway triples when speculative is on, that is not a longer runway — it is a dependency, and now you can see it.
Model a change without touching the plan — delay two hires, slip a round, bridge $200k — and compare it against the live model. Advisors keep their own layer and can offer one to the owner, who accepts or declines it.
Months you have closed use what really happened. The projection starts where your books stop, so a scenario is never arguing with your ledger.